An unusually strong December coastal storm that brought windy downpours and coastal flooding to Florida and the Southeast is sweeping northward and set to produce a huge swath of heavy, wind-driven rain. Strong winds, topping 60 mph in some instances, will batter coastal areas that also should expect shoreline flooding and beach erosion. The rain will be heavy enough inland to cause areas of flooding.
The moisture-loaded storm, which organized over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, will progress from the South Carolina coast Sunday evening to near Virginia Beach on Monday morning and to New England on Monday afternoon.
The National Weather Service is describing the storm as “intense” and “powerful.”
Early Sunday, the storm unleashed an ocean surge — or rise in water above normally dry land — of up to 3 to 3.5 feet along Florida’s west coast, including around Tampa, Clearwater Beach, St. Petersburg, Fort Myers and Gulfport. Images on social media showed streets completely submerged.
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Several inches of heavy rain and an ocean surge also produced serious flash flooding around Charleston on Sunday morning.
“Dangerous flash flooding and coastal flooding in progress across much of Charleston County, including Downtown Charleston,” the Weather Service wrote around 11:30 a.m. Eastern time. It said the tide at Charleston Harbor was the fourth-highest on record, and the highest tide not associated with a tropical storm — about 4 feet above normal. Roads in low-lying sections of Charleston were completely submerged.
A four foot storm surge was also observed in Wilmington, N.C. Sunday afternoon.
Because of heavy rain, flash flood warnings were issued for most of coastal South Carolina through Sunday afternoon before the storm lifted northward. The most extreme rain affected eastern Georgetown County, S.C., where a flash flood emergency — the most dire flood alert — was in effect until 6:15 p.m. About a foot of rain fell in the city of Georgetown while up to 14 inches was estimated by doppler radar just to its south.
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In addition to the heavy rain and high water, the Weather Service posted a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms, including the possibility of a couple of tornadoes, along the coast of the Carolinas through Sunday afternoon. A tornado watch was issued for eastern North Carolina until 8 p.m. Sunday. At least one tornado touched down west of Myrtle Beach, S.C. in the Socastee-Forestbrook area, damaging a shopping center and snapping power poles.
Ordinarily, a sprawling December storm system carrying this much moisture would feature significant snowfall over a large area. However, this year there is little cold air in the eastern United States, so mostly rain will fall until some snow wraps around on the storm’s backside Monday and Monday night in the eastern Great Lakes, interior Northeast and the Appalachians. Winter storm watches have been posted for parts of the central Appalachians, where at least 6 inches of snow could fall.
There will be a lot of rain, too ― with widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches from Florida to Maine, and locally higher amounts as the storm draws moisture from the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and even the Pacific Ocean. Some areas will be bombarded by a narrow jet of particularly heavy rain, not unlike the atmospheric rivers that affect the West Coast.
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Flood watches stretch from North Carolina to Maine, affecting about 60 million people.
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The moisture-infused storm will unload at least 2 to 3 inches of rain over a wide band near where the storm center tracks, bringing the potential for pockets of flooding near creeks and streams and in areas of poor drainage.
After dousing Florida on Saturday night and the Southeast Sunday morning, the rains reached D.C. and Baltimore during the afternoon and Philadelphia in evening. They’ll work toward New York City and Boston on Sunday night. In most areas, rain will last for about 12 to 18 hours.
Strong winds
As the storm system intensifies while riding up the coast, it will inhale air from all sides. That vacuum effect will result in strong winds.
Gusts could hit 60 mph at the coast from the South Carolina/Georgia border north to the Gulf of Maine. A few weather models hint at gusts of up to 70 mph for the Outer Banks, Cape Cod and Downeast Maine.
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Along the Interstate 95 corridor, gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph or even a bit higher in Southern New England. Some power outages could result and tree-falls are possible as heavy rain loosens soil and makes trees more susceptible to being toppled by strong gusts.
Wind advisories have been issued for many areas from Florida to Massachusetts, for gusts up to 50 mph. In eastern New England, including Boston and Providence, R.I., and along the North Carolina Outer Banks, high-wind warnings are in effect for gusts up to 60 mph.
Coastal flooding
A persistent onshore flow ahead of the storm center’s arrival will pile water against the coastline. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely at minimum, and more significant coastal flooding may occur if the storm tracks nearer the coast and the easterly winds are stronger.
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Moderate coastal flooding with water levels up to 2 to 4 feet above normal is expected along the North Carolina Outer Banks and in Virginia Beach Sunday evening and parts of the Delmarva on Sunday night. This threat will spread over the Jersey Shore, Long Island and the south coast of New England on Monday.
There also will be 60-foot waves within 25 miles of the coastline for both the Outer Banks and Cape Cod. While waves that large will stay offshore, the seas undoubtedly will be churned up closer to the coast, resulting in beach erosion.
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